If oil prices stay up, global economy faces lower growth, higher inflation, and interest rates could hike - opposite of expectations from a few months ago.

Kevin Warsh was selected by president to reduce rates, but first act might be neutral or even a hike due to conflict repercussions.

Biggest repercussion is outside US in oil-importing countries facing price and supply issues, with lower-income countries rationing energy for basic needs.

Even if oil moves from $100-150 range, supply constraints are critical issue seen in recent weeks.

China and India heavily impacted as ~30% of China's energy and large share of India's comes from Strait of Hormuz region.

While US energy intensity decreased due to services/tech shift, goods imported from China/India remain energy-intensive and are getting hit badly.

China diversifying energy sources through EVs, nuclear (building plants in 2-3 years vs US 10 years), but short-term still impacted.

Key question is whether Chinese, Indian, or Russian-protected ships could safely navigate Strait vs Western-aligned tankers.

Poor countries like Philippines/Bangladesh face dual problem: can't afford spot prices and suppliers prefer richer buyers, exacerbating their crisis.

Combined with AI shifts, climate issues (Africa water shortages), and war impacts could create major problems, especially European immigration pressures.