Plenty of tailwinds: fiscal stimulus, the Fed's 175 bps of cuts now puts policy near neutral or accommodative, AI is a tailwind for investment which will spill over to other sectors. When you have an improving economic outlook, you see better broad investment.

A little bit, but that can't last. Last year was the wealth effect/K-shaped economy. This year we'll see job growth move higher to realign with GDP, closer to 60,000-80,000 per month.

I think it does. Warsh is just one person. Without economic justification, it will be hard to engineer cuts. The risk around our forecast is towards fewer cuts, not more.

We're still penciling in two cuts, thinking the Fed can cut its long-run neutral estimate. But the window is closing because of the positive jobs report and inflation that's fine, not too hot or cold.