Analyzing current market concerns about Iran/geopolitics by looking at what happened during the last major conflict on June 24th.

During the June 24th conflict, US equities (S&P 500) made all-time highs after recovering from April selloff.

Small caps would be much less impacted by US-Iran-Israel events than large caps.

European stocks retreated from Wednesday's record highs with risk-off play, while Asian stocks climbed to fresh records, showing Asia not concerned about geopolitics.

Metals markets significantly higher overnight but backing off, led down by copper (-1.5%), platinum (-1.7%), palladium (-2%), gold (-0.15%), silver (-0.5%).

ETF flows: buying gold, platinum, palladium; selling silver. Gold ETF flows flat, silver ETF flows down 0.9% YTD.

Stock futures edging lower but off lows: S&P down 0.25%, Russell 2000 down 0.4%, NASDAQ showing most weakness.

Fed minutes show split on rate cuts - not if but when. Market pricing: 5.9% chance March cut, 21.5% April, 63% June, ~100% July.

Dollar index edging higher but not screaming up, near double top. Various currencies retesting swing lows.

WTI crude oil up 1.5% to $66.05. Many traders shifting from metals to energy markets.

10-year Treasury yields tracking higher with energy prices (energy = 6% of CPI).