The US is blocking to force Iran back to negotiations and reopen the strait. Iran responds by threatening to hit Gulf ally ports. The question becomes who can last longer as oil supply shrinks and prices rise.

Iran has had a windfall from selling oil without sanctions discounts for the last month, giving them an economic cushion for several weeks. Their leaders have been looking for this showdown with the US for decades and are unlikely to falter.

This war only made sense if it ended with regime change. Trying to calibrate Iranian behavior through force is almost impossible. You need different leadership, not just behavioral change.