Introduces Eric Van Nostrand, CIO of Lazard Asset Management and former Assistant Treasury Secretary.
Karl
Asks if Eric agrees with David's constructive view on economic re-acceleration.
Karl
Eric Van Nostrand
Acknowledges strong aggregate growth numbers but warns the US economy's growth is more concentrated than ever.
Eric Van Nostrand
States the strong headline growth is fragile because it comes from such narrow strands of consumers and investment.
Counters that narrow growth can still continue.
Karl
Eric Van Nostrand
Agrees narrow growth can continue, which explains current stock market valuations.
Notes core CPI (ex-shelter, ex-used vehicles) 3-month average is at 2.9%, up from 1.1%, suggesting tariff impacts.
Karl
Eric Van Nostrand
Emphasizes the need to look under the hood at underlying trends.
Eric Van Nostrand
Outlines dual pressures driving inflation risk: demand resurgence from AI buildout and persistent supply constraints.
Connects tariffs to full-year earnings, noting consumer companies flagged potential future one-time issues.
Steve
Eric Van Nostrand
Identifies concentrated growth as a common investor mistake, leading to overconfidence.
Gives example of Pinterest citing weakness from tariff-affected retailers trimming advertising.
Karl
Eric Van Nostrand
Agrees and notes inventory data is tricky, requiring analysis of value vs. units.