Asks about oil price expectations for Monday opening after recent 12% drop to $83
speaker1
Mike
Oil probably up a little on Monday but stuck in new range between 80-100; above 100 breaks economy, below 80 will eventually come
Markets see Strait situation as temporary aberration like Battle of the Bulge; natural gas led crude down in 2022-2023
Even if Strait opens, won't costs rise due to higher sailor pay and insurance?
speaker1
Mike
Only 10% of world oil affected; US/Canada surplus at 8M barrels/day could go to 10M; price maker status now in Western Hemisphere
Lower prices will stop surplus growth; Saudi found workarounds; sanction relief for Iran possible
Asks about commodities response and natural gas performance
speaker1
Mike
Natural gas proven to revert below $5; diesel/gas price spike shuts consumer spending; data from this period will be bad
Similar to 2008 energy spike and 9/11 spending shutdown; polls negative on Trump; stock market ignoring risks
Asks about Bitcoin/crypto outlook
speaker1
Mike
Crypto bull market over; Bitcoin likely heading to 50; now lags stock market performance since 2021
Excess supply of millions of cryptos; in same bucket as copper/industrial metals; only rises if stock market rises