Current market action is short covering in beaten-down sectors (alternative asset managers, software), not renewed risk-taking. Bullish narrative supported by 17% earnings season with unprecedented breadth where average company up 8-10%.

Biggest bearish story remains oil prices and long-term macro effects, especially outside US.

Markets tend to overreact with low exposure and shorts on. Downside pendulum swing was probably overly done, and current upside is probably overly done too.

Markets went from really bad to really good, cutting off bad scenario because both sides want to come together, but whether this proves myopic remains to be seen. Cannot ignore earnings season.

This is different - not fundamental buyers or risk-taking back on yet. Need to see progress: oil moving through, sustained lower oil prices.

We've had good news: ISM manufacturing expansionary for first time in 5 years, precarious but potentially balanced labor market. Need April and May data to show effect on consumers of increased prices. Example: paid $8/gallon in California recently.