The waiver indicates White House concern over rising oil prices. Market complacency is dangerous; taking massive volumes of oil, gas, and fertilizer off the market for a lengthy period is not fixable with cosmetic changes.

The duration of the war hinges on the American public's willingness to pay higher energy costs. The administration must demonstrate the conflict is temporary or mitigate costs, which is very difficult.

Success is defined either by regime change (difficult without troops) or declaring victory after degrading Iran's military and demanding behavioral change.

The UAE bombardment has severely damaged Iran-Gulf relations for a very long time; trust is gone. The economic harm to the region will be hard to repair if the conflict sustains.