It's a natural shock to physical supply. Strait of Hormuz shut down, attacks on energy facilities, storage filling, countries cutting production (Iraq), Qatar shuts LNG facility. The surprise is oil isn't higher than $85.

The shock creates winners and losers. US growth hit small (shale producer) but consumers feel inflation. China, Europe, India get stagflation: higher inflation, lower growth. Winners are oil producers outside Middle East: Russia, Canada, Norway.