Positioning data has now triggered first proper buy signal for broader risk asset spectrum since liberation day episode.

Higher frequency labor and consumption data has been solid, but positioning side kept us wary until last week when both systematic and discretionary positioning, particularly hedging, triggered contrarian bias signal.

Very likely the low is in - tough for equities and credit spreads to fall below that level given current positioning data.

Evidence across hedging, skews, put-call ratios, surveys, investor intelligence, AI, and systematic positioning all show bearish sentiment has shifted.

Core CPI of 0.4% or 0.5% could quickly bring yields back into 'danger zone' that spells trouble for entire asset spectrum except dollar.

Two weeks ago yields were pushing toward 4.5% on 10-year, which is danger zone level where nothing works except long cash and dollar. Current rally in treasuries only provides 15 basis point margin of safety.