Asks about muted market reaction despite many countries involved in regional conflict.
Joumana
Deepak Murat
Markets already baked in risk premium - oil up 25% in 6 weeks, gold up 13% in February, so no panic this morning.
Asks about knock-on effects of oil price spike to global economy and inflationary pressures.
Joumana
Deepak Murat
Emerging markets, China, India, EU more exposed than US; oil price rise creates inflationary pressures globally; if conflict prolongs, could cause re-acceleration of US inflation, changing rate cut narrative.
Asks which wins out - safe haven demand (yields below 4%) or inflationary pressures from oil.
Joumana
Deepak Murat
Two scenarios: quick resolution returns yields to normal; prolonged conflict brings inflationary pressure, term premium, fiscal impact, pushing 10-year yields much higher.