Distinguish consumption shock vs labor shock. Initial jobless claims still trending lower, so no material flow to labor market yet. Pain felt via inflation shock (gas prices), but question is whether it spreads to broader labor weakness.

Hard part: 2022 only recent analog, but US was net oil exporter then. Nonfarm payroll growth was >5% then, now slightly above zero, so more growth risk. Business capex (AI) doing heavy lifting; consumption already soft. Mechanism matters most if hit to business capex occurs.

Consumer sentiment at depression-like levels for 5+ years despite asset gains. Reflects high price levels and deeper labor market concerns (slowdown in job creation, AI anxiety).

We're living it now. Housing lock-out pushes younger people into equity market. Retail trader cohort post-pandemic pushes volatility, more reactive to headlines (e.g., today's inverse oil-equity correlation). Longer term, could be deficit/rate story due to demand for government support on affordability.