NASDAQ at 2.5-month low, down 2.6% this week. Is tech still a good investment or just a minor blip?
speaker1
Sarah Kunst
Tech was the leader on the way up and will be a leader on the way down. Some names beaten up due to fundamentals (Tesla's high PE), others (Nvidia, Google) punished for being red-hot as investors lock in gains.
Alphabet down from 5% to 3% with analyst price targets still above current levels (Citizens 385, Wells Fargo 354, Caner 370).
speaker1
Sarah Kunst
Must consider wider macro: atrocious January job numbers (lowest since GFC), shaky consumer confidence, domestic/international unrest. Vibes are off, people entering risk-off position, selling everything from metals to crypto.
Memory chips and software ran up dramatically then came down. Is this a story stock or sector story?
speaker1
Sarah Kunst
It's a sector story. Rises in Oracle/Microsoft tied to hype around private companies like OpenAI. As hype fades (OpenAI-Nvidia deal uncertainty), circular economy of sales looks shaky.
What would you buy this week?
speaker1
Sarah Kunst
I like Alphabet. They largely invented AI, will be huge winner long-term despite recent dip. Far ahead on self-driving cars and AI, know how to make money, have loads of cash. Bullish, will lean into more dips.
AI race requires continuous capex spend to avoid falling behind, especially for Mag 7 names.
speaker1
Sarah Kunst
You have to be in it if it's going (data centers take years), but commitments come from companies like OpenAI without revenue. Big question: when will corporations pay for AI in major way? Revenue hasn't built up to promise.
Thoughts on Palantir this week? Does it tell bigger picture story?
speaker1
Sarah Kunst
Functionally a consulting business with high people costs, but valued like high-tech stock at incredibly high valuation vs revenue. Expensive despite government ties.
Do we need lower Fed rates quickly to help tech?
speaker1
Sarah Kunst
Fed is more problem than help to tech. People not thrilled with president's interventions, questions about new guy. Slow and steady better than dramatic rate cuts.