Asks what's changed in the market calculus after the weekend, especially given the morning's moves.
Julie Fine
Skyler Montgomery Koning
Calculus changed on duration of conflict/supply disruption. $100+ oil has real economic impact: higher inflation, lower growth = stagflation. Worst for markets: equities sell off on growth fears, bonds pressured by inflation/hawkish central banks. Only energy and dollar benefit.
Asks if there's anywhere for investors to hide with bonds and equities under pressure.
Julie Fine
Skyler Montgomery Koning
Traditional safe havens compromised: bonds pressured by inflation, yen/Swiss franc have issues. Dollar is the main beneficiary as a safe haven and because US is an energy exporter, which amplifies the energy shock (commodities priced in dollars).
Asks which markets look particularly vulnerable.
Julie Fine
Skyler Montgomery Koning
Equity markets more vulnerable than bonds. Focus on energy importers: Europe, UK, Asia, EM like South Africa. Also markets that gained most in past year (Asian/EM) have room to sell off in a broad de-risking.