Asks about likelihood of extreme Supreme Court rulings on Trump tariffs.
Carol Massar
Matt Hornbach
Black and white tariff scenarios are less likely than a middle gray area with room for nuance from the Supreme Court.
Asks what the administration could do if the Supreme Court doesn't rule in the President's favor.
Tim Stenovec
Matt Hornbach
The President has other authorities like Section 232, 301, and 122 to repackage tariffs or do bilateral deals.
Notes the Supreme Court could set a precedent about Congress's role in levying tariffs.
Carol Massar
Matt Hornbach
One possibility is the Supreme Court could lay out a timeframe for the administration to get Congressional approval to keep emergency tariffs.
Quotes Hornbach's research on Treasury financing needs if tariffs are overturned, asking if they'll need to raise money.
Carol Massar
Matt Hornbach
Refunds may be owed, but the administration has leeway on timing; the Treasury may pre-fund via bill issuance, which the market can handle.
Asks if refunds could be inflationary like COVID stimulus checks.
Tim Stenovec
Matt Hornbach
Refunds likely paid to companies, not households; economists don't expect a large impact on inflation or real GDP.
Asks about scenarios for Fed independence under Trump.
Carol Massar
Matt Hornbach
Fed independence is critical; it's a committee, not just the chair. The next chair will have to explain policy credibly or markets will extract a price.
Matt Hornbach
Whoever is at the Fed needs the best quality data from statistical agencies, which has deteriorated since the government shutdown.