Asks if UK political market volatility will continue to plague Starmer.
Lizzy Burden
Camille de Courcel
Volatility could dissipate a little, but risk will linger into May local elections. Options market shows options sold into the election, bought after.
Asks which candidate is most market-friendly and if they are all in same boat.
Lizzy Burden
Camille de Courcel
Key question is fiscal stance of next PM/Chancellor. Market focused on fiscal picture; uncertainty driving UK asset weakness.
Asks if dovish BoE vote split suggests a cut in March.
Lizzy Burden
Camille de Courcel
March cut has been BNP's best case. Last week's meeting was supportive. Inflation picture has turned rapidly towards supporting return to target.
Asks if delayed US data will move needle for Fed.
Lizzy Burden
Camille de Courcel
NFP and unemployment rate remain key focus. Data last week has been softer, suggesting risk of an important miss. But if unemployment steady at 4.4%, not a game changer; status quo for Fed.