The moves have been most dramatic in global rates markets. There are two things: 1) Inflation fear from a geopolitical oil price spike (a stagflation shock), and 2) A deleveraging exercise as relative value trades (swaps, basis) are unwound, similar to post-LIBORation day.

For the Fed, they've already cut. They will be on hold next week. To keep inflation expectations low, they can't sound dovish. I really struggle to see rate hikes because the consumer saving rate is dropping.

The 10-year at 4.25% or higher starts to add value. Start to add some duration to position for the growth shock that typically follows an inflation shock.

Over the medium term, Treasuries/duration will be that hedge. People have PTSD from 2022, but today is different. The Fed's dual mandate is inflation; if service inflation picks up from a 3% PCE starting point, there's concern the Fed can't respond.

A geopolitical-driven rise in oil is a growth hit. In 2022 they had to hike because the starting point was zero. Now, if the Fed thinks rates are slightly restrictive, that raises the bar for hikes.