A lot of stuff hitting the market at once. The macro has been pesky, and the micro (earnings) has been underwhelming. Beat rates are lower than last quarter, and upward revision rates are down. Describes it as 'slightly squishy, not a disaster, but not good.'

AI jitters have been present since Labor Day. The S&P 500 forward PE has hit a ceiling since August. Top 10 market cap names are priced for perfection with little room for error. There was already a healthy appetite for diversification away from mega-cap growth before macro issues hit.

Some rotation is happening within tech, but as a generalist, reading broader S&P 500 earnings is frustrating. Outside of tech, AI end-users give more interesting examples but lack numerical impact on revenues, margins, or earnings. 'Where's the beef?' The measurable impact isn't there yet, which is the issue with rotating within the AI trade.

Valuations can hold steady. Encouraged that analysts are starting to ask harder questions in Q&A, but doesn't think we'll get specifics this reporting season.

Consumer messaging is consistent with last quarter: aggregate spend is healthy, but there are problems underneath the surface. It's still mixed with signs of consumer stress.

Geopolitics cast a pall early in earnings season, but it got better last week. The interest rate credit card cap issue keeps coming up for financials, along with other policy discussions like healthcare and housing affordability, which companies see as manageable.

RBC is overweight financials. They like regionals better. One pillar of their thesis was that policy tailwinds were stronger than headwinds; that assumption might need questioning after the first week of earnings.

Her rates team stresses it's a committee decision. From an equity lens, the Russell 2000 didn't do well after the Fed pick. It's a short-term trade for fast-money hedge funds that bid it up on dovishness and sell on overreach. Small caps are also not cheap anymore and not net short.

Her gold strategist says dollar and uncertainty drive gold. Equities aren't ignoring macro risks; they are shifting to sectors that benefit or using assets like gold to protect against those risks. Investors often ask what the gold strategist thinks, showing a 'do this with one hand and this with the other' approach.

There are not a lot of fantastic alternatives. Mega-cap tech had been a way to play defense, but those are starting to look less attractive, pushing people outside equities to protect against risks.

Not the best person to ask. International clients focus on Fed and geopolitics; US clients focus on earnings. Her analysis shows the best environment for stocks is when the Fed does absolutely nothing. Her only dog in the fight is not wanting the Fed to do too much.

Shows a chart where Bitcoin, a private markets index, and other risk gauges broke down simultaneously in Oct/Nov. When Bitcoin breaks down, it can cause sideways indigestion in equities. It confirms the market needs a breather.