We do think that it may be a little bit premature to jump back into those risk-on structures just yet.

Certainly we have the Easter holidays coming up and there could be thin liquidity, we have payrolls as well later this week. And we still have that other impending deadline that Trump had mentioned before around the 6th of April.

Asia is particularly vulnerable. They sourced about over 40% of their energy needs from the Middle East.

Many of the countries also are holding quite low oil reserves. It can last maybe between one or even two months for many of these economies like India, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

We don't anticipate then that oil prices will be heading back to their pre-conflict levels.

Maybe closer to the $80 per barrel mark seems more likely if we truly are getting de-escalation and the strait beginning to open up.

The intervention risks across the region are quite elevated.

Having a weaker currency would only exacerbate the inflation risk associated with this conflict.

In a scenario where oil prices are let's say around $80 on a more permanent basis, it could knock off about half a percentage point to developed market nations growth and add about half a percentage point to inflation as well.

If we are settling at higher energy prices, let's say closer to the $100 per barrel mark, some of the central banks may need to respond with rate hikes.