Asks if the bond market selloff is due to positioning or genuine fear of central bank rate hikes into an inflation shock.
Joumana Bercetche
Stephen Major
States facts have changed; markets are adjusting to a stagflation base case as escalation continues, with central banks tipping towards more severe scenarios.
Asks what timeframe shifts perception from a temporary inflation spike to something requiring central bank action.
Joumana Bercetche
Stephen Major
Says the idea of a short conflict is in the rearview mirror; markets are now pricing in much higher oil prices for a much longer time.
Asks whether growth hit or inflation spike will dominate for Europe.
Joumana Bercetche
Stephen Major
Argues inflation will rise faster than growth falls in the near term, leading to a stagflation scenario.
Asks about the yield curve in a stagflation scenario.
Joumana Bercetche
Stephen Major
Predicts initial bear flattening as central banks hike or signal hikes, with potential steepening later if stagflation takes hold.