Argues it is logical. Iran has bargaining power on the Strait of Hormuz; high oil/gasoline prices hurt the US politically, so the US will eventually settle to reopen the Strait. The nuclear issue is too complex and will be separated, leading to endless talks. The futures market is pricing this return to a post-war equilibrium for oil flows.

We have an asymmetric warfare problem. The real question is not how you wage war, but how you wage peace. A peaceful solution has to be one where Iran lets the world export oil from the Persian Gulf.

Expects a swift ramp-up in inflation over the next two months. Because consumers are in reasonably good shape, costs will be passed on, maintaining corporate margins. Does not expect a collapse in corporate profits outside of tech; energy profits will do well. The US economy should withstand these impacts.

The surge in corporate profits has been driven by the AI push and capital spending, which won't be too disrupted.

Points to structural changes: massive stock buybacks ($1T last year), huge defined contribution plan inflows ($11T), and wealthy households buying financial assets. This constant cash flow requires something "really bad and scary" to cause a correction. The market is overestimating the economy, but it's reflecting cash looking for a home.

Consumer sentiment is underestimating the economy, while the market is overestimating it.

Argues you can't hedge against unknown 'fat tail' risks like 9/11 or a pandemic. The only way to hedge risk is to diversify and avoid overpaying for overvalued assets.

Technology in all dimensions (military, bio, financial) is getting more powerful and unregulated, which can cause blow-ups.

Says trading is a nightmare, but the investment perspective is that AI capabilities are driving software. However, businesses need integration, not just in-house tech development, which is why companies like Meta outsource to CoreWeave.

People won't design payroll systems in their garage. The business of integrating technology is very important, and there will be plenty of market for software companies that provide the best way to deal with business problems.