Asks for view on developments and outlook for risk vs. treasuries.
Avril Hong
Mark Matthews
Initial reaction is fairly sanguine. Oil at $80. Long-term S&P performance depends on economic impact, not the geopolitical event itself.
Asks if market is overestimating risks.
Avril Hong
Mark Matthews
Market is trading appropriately now, but worst-case is possible. Suspects it won't be worst-case due to Trump's aversion to long wars, midterm politics, Iran's isolation.
Asks about inflationary re-threat and Fed cuts.
Haidi Stroud-Watts
Mark Matthews
Inflation threat is real only if Strait of Hormuz is shut down, which has never really happened.