Every $10 barrel increase shaves 0.1% off world GDP. Oil up $30-40, that's 0.4%. US was only going to grow 0.7% this year; could tip into recession.

Provides precise quantitative impact.

Houthis have peace agreement with US, not violating it yet. They struck Israel but say won't strike Americans or Red Sea shipping currently. They are keeping powder dry. If US sends land forces or attacks Iranian power plants, Houthis might act, which would be very bad for energy markets - could hit Yanbu, cut off 7mbd.

Clarifies Houthi current stance and potential trigger for escalation.

Very deep hole. French suggest 30% of Gulf refinery capacity damaged. Ras Laffan LNG facility in Qatar damage could take 3-5 years to repair, knocked out 17% of capacity going to China/East Asia. Damage already built in. Another month like this will be biggest energy shock ever.

Cites specific damage assessments and long repair timelines.

Enormous distance between sides. Iranians have ace: can sabotage Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea exports (10-15% of world total). They get to decide when this ends. They want guarantees against future attacks. US/Israel have to stop bombing. Iran will likely get a toll system for reconstruction. Land invasion of Iran by US would be complete disaster, like Vietnam but worse.

Asserts Iranian strategic leverage and dismisses military solution.