The US blockade is a game of chicken. Iran will respond by hitting Gulf ally ports, stopping their oil supply. Oil prices will rise as supply shrinks.

Iran has had a windfall from selling oil without sanctions discounts for the last month. They can sit on that cushion for several weeks or more. The question is who can last longer: Iran enduring economic pain, or the US and other countries suffering inflation and potential recessions from high oil prices. Knowing the Islamic Republic's history of seeking a showdown with the US, they are unlikely to falter.

It's tough. John Bolton was correct that this war only makes sense if it ends with regime change. Otherwise, trying to calibrate Iran's behavior by force is almost impossible.

What you want is regime change so a different leadership is in charge of Iran's nuclear and military assets, one that won't threaten neighbors. Regime change has so far failed.