Markets are confused and lack direction due to tremendous uncertainty. Investors are waiting to see the next political move, oil prices, inflation, and what it means for Fed action.

Investors are probably not pricing in enough volatility. The VIX could easily be higher.

Has not changed portfolio tilts but raised cash to 7% (from ~2%) to account for uncertainty. Maintains cyclical tilt in international markets, EM ex-China, and US industrials, energy, materials.

Macro signals haven't rolled over yet. Earnings growth was strong in Q4, and we entered Q1 with a strong backdrop. If the conflict blows over, the January/February landscape re-emerges. The cash acts as a buffer if things fall.

The Fed is in no position to cut interest rates. If the Fed cuts aggressively into an inflationary environment, it would be a mistake.

Cutting rates would juice inflation, bond vigilantes would come out, pushing the 10-year yield well north of 5%. This higher rate environment would ultimately slow growth, cause volatility, and punish markets—potentially causing the recession they're trying to avoid.

Concerned about liquidity in some private credit funds, where managers sold vehicles as 'somewhat liquid.' A contagion event is possible if investors are forced to sell in public markets to raise liquidity.

Prefers to stay on the sidelines in corporate private credit, though sees opportunities in infrastructure/hard-asset private credit.