The market is fatigued and expecting a reprieve. There is a huge disconnect between physical oil trading at $150-$160 in Asia and spot oil at $95. Markets are beginning to price an end to this, which includes the opening of the Strait and the perceived unwillingness of the U.S. to launch a land invasion.

Everything will be on the table. The region has to think of alternatives like pipeline extensions. The world, especially Asia, will look to be less dependent on the region.

Russia is a big winner, making around $250 million a day. China is also a big winner, both commercially and strategically.