Oil prices have receded. Brent futures are still below $100. The market is monitoring two things: 1) potential breakthrough in peace talks, 2) attacks on infrastructure have essentially halted for a week. The big fear is an attack on major facilities causing damage that takes years to repair.

Contrasts the quick return of supply if Strait opens with the long-term damage from missile strikes, like the Qatari LNG facility offline for 3-5 years.