Not surprised central banks are talking about inflation. Oil needs to stay at $80-85 for 3-4 months to have meaningful inflation impact on key consumers. History shows Middle East shocks are often episodic; needs to last.

Actually, Europe's problem is that after moving away from Russian energy, it started taking a lot of LNG from Qatar – which is now the choke point. The US could be the swing producer. The question is whether Europe goes back to Russia to fill the gap.

The supply chain impact is a second-order effect. The problem with oil is geography: the east-west pipeline has 4 million capacity, but 16 million barrels get stuck. It will be oil first, goods later.

What unnerves me is that we didn't get a big spike and sell-off in stocks initially. The historical playbook is a big spike in oil, pressure on stocks, then a fade. The lack of a sell-off means we might see a buildup and convex moves later when inventories run down.

In emerging Asia, there's a pecking order. China is relatively immune due to high inventories and fuel-switching capability. India is exposed as a big oil importer. The longevity/duration of the conflict is the problem.

Tech can play the role of a safe haven if central banks are not hawkish. But if they become hawkish to fight the building inflation shock, the 2022 template becomes viable, and tech came under a lot of pressure then due to rising real rates.

We don't think it's a systemic issue, but concerns are building up, including liquidity concerns. We have been flagging to clients to be careful about private credit. One mitigator is that it's not a traded asset class, so there's no mark-to-market shock, and it can play out over a longer period.

China is quite cushioned if you look at the numbers. However, there are reports that only Russian and Chinese tankers are passing through, so we must consider the wider geopolitical context of US-China rivalry.

This is not a world where bonds will be your stabilizers. The risk of recession is lower due to political appetite, but supply shocks can happen. We recommend gold, duration management on equity exposure, and currencies. European bonds are waking up because LNG flows went down yesterday, forcing a decision on whether to go back to Russia.