Fed Chair Jerome Powell says the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode, holding rates steady in 3.5-3.75% range to monitor how Iran war and higher oil prices affect inflation and economy.

Powell emphasized long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored; monetary policy tools better suited for demand than short-term supply shocks.

Powell noted Fed is watching private credit market risks but sees no broader systemic threat; central bank not inclined to raise rates in response to oil spike.

Fed Governor Miron supports cutting rates by about 1 percentage point over 2026, sees no evidence of wage-price spiral or sustained inflation shock from oil.

Miron believes inflation expectations anchored, labor market needs support, and financial conditions have tightened unexpectedly; balance sheet reduction could be paired with lower short-term rates.

Chances for a rate hike before year-end dipped below 5% after speeches; chances for a cut by December about 16%.

Aluminum stocks rallied after Middle East facilities hit, causing supply disruptions; Strait of Hormuz blockage could impact 10% of supply.

Supply shocks continuing beyond energy into industrial metals, which could be disruptive for AI build-out.

Chinese stocks higher; MSCI China ETF up, but KWEB Chinese Internet ETF struggled near 52-week lows, down nearly 20%.

China's energy strategy more insulated from oil shock; tech companies facing margin pressure from subsidy war but expected to improve this quarter.

Nike reports tomorrow; Wall Street expects $0.75 EPS on $12.3B revenue; watching margin pressure, North America/China sales, inventory levels.

Watching February JOLTS and Conference Board consumer confidence for March to assess economic picture.