Market pricing reflects anticipation of Trump unilaterally declaring victory, prompting positioning for risk asset rebound.

Central banks' message this week is wait-and-see; they must balance lessons from 2022 with different initial conditions today (looser labor, inflation closer to target).

ECB likely to signal vigilance/hawkishness to prevent inflation expectations de-anchoring, rather than hike into possible recession.

Fed unlikely to cut this year with inflation risks up; outside risk of signaling asymmetric stance toward hiking if shock is bad enough.

Dollar hasn't rallied as much as expected given energy shock because Fed front-end rates have been dovish.

Economy can hold up if conflict wraps up in weeks as Trump suggests; prolonged shock would hit consumer, which is key driver.