Introduces topic: extreme gold price moves, central bank accumulation, shifting dollar language, and mismatched sentiment.
Jeremy Saffron
Ronald-Peter Stöferle
Gold's 4.5 sigma move shows it's not low volatility. The quick recovery from the October sell-off confirms a strong bull market, with sidelined capital waiting to buy dips.
Asks to break down the move between real money/central banks vs. futures/speculation.
Jeremy Saffron
Ronald-Peter Stöferle
Sept-Oct was speculative and frothy. The rapid shift from extreme bullish to bearish sentiment is not how a secular bull market ends, confirming the 'public participation phase' thesis.
Asks if such moves resolve with deep corrections or sideways consolidation.
Jeremy Saffron
Ronald-Peter Stöferle
We are probably in a sideways correction now, with lower volatility. Silver and miners are finally gaining interest as they are cheap relative to gold.
Asks about the US dollar and Treasury Secretary's 'Bretton Woods realignment' comments.
Jeremy Saffron
Ronald-Peter Stöferle
A major bear market in the dollar will be a key driver for gold next year. Political discussion of monetary reorganization is now mainstream, a major shift.
Asks if we're still early and where gold fits into monetary reorganization.
Jeremy Saffron
Ronald-Peter Stöferle
We are in the second half of the bull market, not a bubble. Gold is inexpensive if valued as a monetary asset expecting system reorganization.
Asks how monetary bifurcation reshapes gold outlook and introduces volatility.
Jeremy Saffron
Ronald-Peter Stöferle
Central bank demand (1000+ tons/year) is a fundamental change. Future big demand will come from fixed income investors seeking a new hedge against inflation.
Asks about his new 60/40 portfolio framework replacing bonds with gold/commodities.
Jeremy Saffron
Ronald-Peter Stöferle
The old 60/40 rests on bonds hedging equities, which fails in an inflationary paradigm. Proposes 45% stocks, 15% bonds, 15% 'safe haven' gold, 10% 'performance' gold (silver/miners), 10% commodities, 5% Bitcoin.
Asks if China's speculative silver fund premiums signal a crowded trade or just limited access.
Jeremy Saffron
Ronald-Peter Stöferle
Silver's fundamental case is strong: five consecutive deficits, flat mine supply, booming industrial demand. Now investors see its leverage and cheapness vs. gold.
Asks if silver volatility is a feature or bug for portfolios, and if it's becoming a monetary asset.
Jeremy Saffron
Ronald-Peter Stöferle
Volatility is a feature in a maturing bull market. Silver's move is primarily investor/momentum demand, not yet a monetary trade.
Asks what's different with mining stocks today and focus on producers vs. juniors.
Jeremy Saffron
Ronald-Peter Stöferle
Mining sector has one of its healthiest setups ever with strong cash flows. Management is still conservative, M&A makes sense. Need to simplify message to attract generalists.
Asks about exit strategy and conditions to reduce equity exposure for bullion.
Jeremy Saffron
Ronald-Peter Stöferle
Still have room in the bull market; will be at least one major correction. Exit time comes if the assumption of a monetary system reorganization with gold playing a major role plays out.
Asks about the most underappreciated risk.
Jeremy Saffron
Ronald-Peter Stöferle
Risk of increased financial repression on gold (taxes, restrictions on buying/selling). Also, the Fed may not cut as aggressively as hoped if inflation stages a comeback.
Asks if the paper market (COMEX) still sets gold price or if physical demand is reasserting.
Jeremy Saffron
Ronald-Peter Stöferle
Paper market has less and less power. The center of the gold world is in emerging markets (Dubai, Shanghai, India), where physical demand dominates.