Investors are looking nervously at the open with oil up 7-8%. Last week's oil jump faded as Trump sounded conciliatory. Equity traders pile into equities assuming peace will be reached and the Strait will reopen, making tech and other dropped sectors look cheap.

Short-term, oil moves matter more. Long-term, the Fed's interpretation of war-driven inflation matters. The Powell Fed is on hold until clarity on the Strait and oil. Warsh is expected to be keen on easing policy toward year-end.

Asia will have a tough day. It is more immediately vulnerable to the Strait closure. Asian stocks are likely to sell off, but not as deeply as a week ago due to hope for back-channel negotiations.

The closure looks more solid now than last Friday.