This is a broader view of where we see the economic recovery going from here. There was concern we would have pressure in the U.S. because of inflation. We are worried about that as this conflict continues but banks have lots of ways they can capitalize on this market including the market-making activity which is driven some of the results.

I would agree jobs matter and we've been watching labor markets closely for many months. You have a lot of concentration of wealth, you've markets have rebounded radically, and you also have a situation where a lot of these consumers already own their homes. They are seeing price appreciation over the last several years. They are feeling pretty flush. I would not say none of the consumers are impacted by higher energy prices. At the lower end of the spectrum that is a concern.

Certainly the amount of paycheck that goes towards energy is nothing like what it once was. There is some concern that inflationary pressures may not be as short-lived as we think. We are in this window for the next few months the Fed will be on hold because the inflationary pressures will feel a little bit more immediate. We still hold true to our call that by the end of the year the Fed is cutting again.

If you look at the underlying dynamics of what was driving the latest CPI number, there were some disinflationary things around things like used vehicles that will probably roll off.

Earnings are looking pretty good. If you look at the re-rating when markets pulled back earlier this year at the start of the conflict coupled with improvement in earnings outlooks you have seen stocks look relatively attractive. When you layer in some of the other themes around artificial intelligence and other ways productivity gains can happen that paints a relatively good picture. As you also note the conflict is far from over and there is a risk we have another shoe to drop in the energy constraints become a real problem globally.