Futures and physical markets have sharply diverged; Brent futures are near $98-99, but physical prices are at $130-$144, reflecting actual supply reality.

Even with a resolution, it will take weeks to instill confidence among logistics players and months to normalize due to a 'traffic jam' of vessels and the need to restart wells.

The current strategy involves multiple factors (sanctions, trade impact, blockade) playing together with no historical analog. Prices indicate hope for a diplomatic resolution, but complexities like China and Russia entering the picture could lead to confrontation.

The supply disruption is real and not being absorbed by the market; time is of the essence for a durable resolution.

Yes, the OPEC figures were in line with expectations. April production could drop further as there is no pressure valve opening, and there is no like-for-like replacement capacity for the disrupted flows.

This underscores the energy security concern entering the second month of the conflict.