No confidence in sustainable peace. Confident only in announcement of peace. Sees second round of talks happening, progress possible. Trump wants and will likely announce a deal. But implementation to normalize Strait traffic is far off with many risks.

President seems more comfortable now than during State of Union. Prices have gone up under his administration/decisions. He lacks mechanism to get them down. No imminent military plan to open Strait or escalate. Military movements are slow. Trump has to accept affordability will hurt midterm efforts.

Points to slow-rolling carrier group and marine unit positioning as evidence of no imminent escalation plan.

Iran already improving capabilities during ceasefire. Trump's willingness for ceasefire implies serious about off-ramp. Now showing consequences with blockade/seizure. Ceasefire still holds. Trump pushing Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, threatening Iran. All activity implies wants to extend ceasefire, avoid fighting.

Cites Trump's calls to global leaders about Israel-Lebanon deal and threats to Iran as evidence of posture.

Hope so. Pressure on Iran also pressures US, improving US credibility. Iran has more money now due to higher oil prices and previously suspended sanctions. Trump flipped from keeping prices down to pressuring regime. Question is if pressure is about economics or showing US can wait out Iran. Danger: US negotiating with leaders who may seek retribution, not just deal.

Notes Trump's 'no more Mr. Nice Guy' threat to leaders whose families have been killed, questioning credibility and highlighting ideological/retribution motives.

Russia biggest near-term beneficiary: selling more oil/gas/fertilizer at higher prices (sanctions suspended). Military capabilities diverted from Ukraine to Gulf. But Ukraine now most capable military in Europe, Putin not gaining land. Transatlantic weakness helps Putin, but key ally Orban lost. Not in materially better position. China in materially better position long-term: US war unpopular globally, driving countries to hedge with China.

Contrasts near-term revenue gain with strategic setbacks in Ukraine and European politics. Separates short-term economic benefit from long-term strategic shift favoring China.