US oil (WTI) is hanging at $95-100, but Brent crude is where the volatility is, driven by Middle East supply disruptions.

Every $1 move in WTI costs consumers more at the pump, acting as a tax and driving up other prices (groceries, agriculture), leading to growth concerns and sticky inflation.

Normally 150 ships (20% of global energy needs). Iran's retaliatory attacks on specific energy infrastructure (like LNG regions) cause price shocks.

The Fed cannot cut rates with high energy prices and inflation. Two scenarios: 1) Oil prices fall on progress, leading to lower inflation expectations, rate cuts, a weaker dollar, lower yields, and a rise in growth commodities. 2) A 'higher for longer' shock causes equities to hemorrhage, raising recession fears and eventually pricing in more than two rate cuts due to global growth concerns.

Powell is frustrated; cutting rates would fuel more inflation. He's stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Gold has turned into a growth story. Large participants (central banks) are shifting focus to buying defense/energy needs, removing a key structural support. Clients are selling GLD/gold futures as profits slip. Gold miners are especially hurt by high fuel costs.

Wheat and corn are key performers. Sugar (linked to ethanol) is breaking out. Soybeans are too dependent on Chinese demand and were hit by geopolitical delays.