Investors focus more on earnings and the next quarter than on pricing in long-term geopolitical change. The 'buy the dip' strategy has been profitable so far.

There's a signal from the Trump administration that they want to do a deal. They're betting the President knows time is not on his side and will come to terms.

A rapid deterioration is possible if the conflict continues. People are looking at a 2-3 week timeframe for resolution.

If not resolved, drawing down reserves and restarting production will be much worse. For now, macro indicators and corporate earnings look good, and there are exciting companies. Ignoring political headlines paints a good picture.

The next two weeks are crucial. Confidence in shipping and agreements will be slow to restore; oil won't go back to pre-war levels quickly.

The key is whether ship owners will trust any new deal, pay tolls, or need naval enforcement. Uncertainty around Iran's ability to deliver on agreements will keep oil prices elevated.

As an American, I'd say the US is best, but oil is a global market—high prices in Asia mean high prices here, eroding consumer confidence.

We see a dichotomy: consumers spend but sentiment deteriorates (all-time low last week). High gas prices during driving season will be a headwind.

There's never an optimistic tone at the IMF. The new message is that inflationary pressures are not going down; they're increasing.

The Energy Secretary said projecting lower gasoline prices by summer is optimistic. Assembled officials are more worried about macro indicators than financial markets suggest.

It's a balance. Tax cuts and depreciation are positive tailwinds, but oil price uncertainty will put a brake on business investment and confidence.

Tariffs won't be as high as feared, which helps. The oil price is a clear headwind.

$120 would be optimistic. In a physical market desperate for oil, $200 might be cheap, leading to demand destruction.

That's why the next 2 to 4 weeks are really crucial.

Investors are confused but are pushing back expectations for rate cuts this year. There's talk the next move could be up next year.

It's hard to see even a new Fed chair coming in and calling for aggressive cuts given the macro environment.