Asks if clients are concerned enough about geopolitical situation to move risk off.
Vonnie Quinn
Kayla Seder
Geopolitics is a concern but counterbalanced by Fed easing expectations, strong positioning in high-quality parts of market, strong balance sheets, and rising US growth.
Asks if data might come in better than expected, reducing need for Fed reaction.
Vonnie Quinn
Kayla Seder
Most important is anchored inflation expectations and market faith that next Fed move is a cut, not a hike.
Asks where smart money is going given ample liquidity, low credit risk, and double-digit earnings expectations.
Vonnie Quinn
Kayla Seder
Positioning still concentrated in tech; sees opportunity in software (neutral positioning allows for increased exposure). Outside tech, sees interest in pharmaceuticals and energy infrastructure companies (not producers).
Asks if potential Supreme Court ruling against Trump tariffs would change the math.
Vonnie Quinn
Kayla Seder
Tariff theme will not go away regardless of ruling. A ruling against Trump would increase bill issuance, likely flattening the Treasury curve (yields rise, front-end rises more).
Asks about dollar outlook, noting it's against consensus.
Vonnie Quinn
Kayla Seder
Maintains case for dollar weakness this year due to expectations that other central banks (RBA, ECB, BOC) will hike while Fed and BOE ease.
Asks if a different Fed chair (more aligned with administration's strong dollar policy) would change outlook.
Vonnie Quinn
Kayla Seder
Next chair likely to continue dovish; hard to have strong dollar if Fed eases policy. Data is most important; if inflation reaccelerates due to strong growth/stimulative tax cuts, outlook would shift.