Asks if Kevin Hassett (White House) is right to dismiss the weak jobs report as one-off due to strikes and weather.
Host
Jan Hatzius
Agrees strikes and weather had an impact and that monthly numbers are noisy, but averaging still shows a weak labor market with very little job growth, negative if excluding healthcare.
Jan Hatzius
Notes two issues: weak labor market translation of growth, and an unfolding energy price shock.
Asks if 'stagflation' is the right word to use.
Host
Jan Hatzius
Directionally, recent shocks have been pointing towards stagflation, but we are not in a stagflationary environment yet.
Asks if recession risk is back in the mix given past quick adjustments.
Host
Jan Hatzius
Directionally, recession risk is probably going higher. Started year with 30% risk for next 12 months, lowered it after good January numbers, now directionally going higher.
Asks if lack of job growth is due to immigration policy.
Host
Jan Hatzius
Slowdown in labor force growth from immigration policy is one reason weak job growth hasn't translated into a bigger unemployment rate increase.
Asks why jobless claims are still so tame.
Host
Jan Hatzius
We're still in a low 'hire or fire' environment. Job openings are trending down, but there hasn't been much increase in layoffs, which is good news.