We are heading toward a full-blown regional conflagration with great uncertainty for markets and energy supplies. Difficult to see de-escalation soon as this is existential for Iran and an opportunity Netanyahu has waited for.

We track quantitative (number of UAVs/missiles) and qualitative (targeting high-value economic assets) military escalation. President Trump's broad 'regime change' goal is difficult via air power alone; campaign may continue until a pragmatic leader emerges.

Neither Russia nor China indicated willingness to support Iran. Iran's isolation makes dynamics more dangerous; Iran may expand targets hoping to inflict sufficient damage on oil and financial markets to make Trump climb down.

Iran probably incapable of fully closing Strait of Hormuz due to US monitoring. However, occasional threats (drones, missiles) are sufficient to disrupt shipping, raise insurance, and keep oil prices elevated. Impact on global oil prices depends on conflict duration.

Gulf air defenses effective (~90% interception) but 10% get through, potentially hitting high-value assets. Options: allow US greater operational access, preemptive strikes, or join fight. Default preference is mediator role to find diplomatic off-ramp.