Markets viewing this as a volatility shock, not a supply shock. Energy infrastructure not as impacted as other targets, leading to contained risk-off, cautious but not panicked sentiment.

Base case is introduction of new risk premium ($7-8 handle increase), not a spike to $100+. Key question is impact on growth and inflation. Limited oil price increases could see some pickup in breakevens, front-end pressure, but not a seismic inflation shock.

Three investor responses for portfolio resilience: 1) Gold as effective hedge in geopolitical volatility, diversifying from stock-bond correlation. 2) Market-neutral strategies focusing on relative value. 3) Buffered equity strategies via options to manage drawdowns.