Probability of regime change ~30%, so base case is protracted conflict. Real risk is Iranian proxies targeting other choke points globally (Mozambique LNG, Iraq). This will be a structural repricing of oil; do not fade current spike.

Current kinetic storm (like a hurricane) may last 7-10 days, but overall situation unpredictable due to asymmetric doctrine. After initial disruption, risk continues elsewhere.

Potential 8-10M bpd loss for 7-10 days (~100M barrels), similar to floating glut in South China Sea. But aftermath is more serious.

Market was priced for glut/complacency; this is 'real deal.' Probability of protracted conflict high; volatility will be high. Hoarding impulse will accelerate (China, India), increasing demand. US may open SPR but insurance policies dwindling.

Affordability commodities (food, fuel) suppressed; other commodities (periodic table) have gone up. Europe most vulnerable: not part of China block, can't access Russian supply, not long energy like US. European gas (TTF) has most upside as hedge.

Be extraordinarily careful; market has no room for error. Narrative of oil glut wrong; inventories low, spare capacity exhausted, insurance policies gone. Very cautious to upside risk.