Situation has worsened, calling it 'molecular contagion.' Shortages have spread from Singapore to Rotterdam, Thailand, Philippines, New Zealand, Australia. No price spread, spare capacity, or policy fix remains. Emphasizes this is a physical supply chain problem where financialization and money printing don't apply.

Paper markets have entirely disconnected from physical markets. Physical crude in Asia is ~$130-$170/barrel, with products above $200, while paper markets sit around $100. The gap with Russian crude has closed, leaving no spare barrels. The supply shock is almost equal to the COVID demand shock. Oil is mispriced at $100.

Agrees the crisis will unleash enormous investment into renewables and nuclear. However, the transition is incomplete, and the remaining oil consumption is critical. Pulling barrels out will have significant cascading effects through supply chains (e.g., gas?urea?fertilizers?food; LPG?synthetic fibers?cotton). Suggests agriculture is the best sector for value as it hasn't priced this in.

Once inventories are exhausted, demand must be brought down to match supply, requiring prices 'far higher' than current levels. Uses the mirror image of COVID: in 2020, a -$37/barrel price was needed to rebalance; now the opposite environment exists, implying a need for very high prices to destroy demand.

Advises to 'get long, buckle your seat belt and hang on for the ride.' Warns of extreme volatility (citing European gas in 2022). No evidence of demand destruction yet, so the upside is substantial. The market is shorting energy stocks and long everything else short energy, which is 'picking up pennies in front of the steamroller.'

Declines to give a specific target but points to physical market prices (Oman at $173, jet fuel at $220-$230) as evidence of the massive disconnect. The financial/paper world is not heeding the signals of a shock similar in size to COVID's initial impact.

It will require 'visual images of real shortages' in the US and Europe. Europe will likely be first. The US equity market is global (MAG7 earnings come from overseas), so it will feel the impact via wealth effects from falling earnings even if domestic energy flows are secure. Europeans will feel it in both wealth and cash flow soon.