Asks for Ferguson's take on Fed expectations after CPI report, noting market expects pause.
speaker1
Roger Ferguson
Agrees with market expectation of Fed pause next week for three reasons: Fed's wait-and-see attitude, data not decisive (CPI as expected, mixed labor reports), overall situation moving sideways.
Challenges Ferguson's view that no one is worried about inflation, citing core CPI at 2.5% and expectation inflation will be higher due to oil shock.
speaker1
Roger Ferguson
Acknowledges core CPI/PCE is elevated and inflation is more likely to spike due to oil prices, which many see as stagflationary (temporary inflation rise, drain on consumer spending).
Asks about Fed sentiment amid political dynamics (Supreme Court on Lisa Cook, Kevin Warsh nomination blocked, new Fed chair).
speaker1
Roger Ferguson
Fed's primary focus is dual mandate (prices, employment), which is challenging enough. They also recognize political dynamics but are aligned on maintaining Fed independence.