Explains defensive shift is about raising cash, not buying defense stocks. Concerned about stagflationary environment from elevated oil. Is raising cash, increasing gold, buying copper, and underweighting tech. Doing opposite of 3 weeks ago due to data shift from decelerating inflation/accelerating growth to the opposite scenario.

Absolutely worries war will last longer. Fed won't cut rates unless economy gets really bad, creating a policy 'lose lose'. Boots on ground would add uncertainty. Sees strong back half of year possible but major near-term headwind.

Absolutely expects correction. Very high probability of S&P 10% correction, meaning tech/high-beta will lose more. Following data, scaling back clients to see how things unfold.

Acknowledges risk. Underweight call based on post-earnings rejection due to decelerating earnings growth (from 50% to 15-10%). Expects bigger deceleration in software/semis next quarter.

Sees buying opportunity in tech late Q2/early Q3 for a 'wash out'. Tech is most concentrated Wall Street trade, a source of funds for rotation. Mag Seven all under 50-day MA is not a buy sign.

Expects short-term stagflationary data due to oil. Oil touches all economy; supply chain disruptions will keep oil elevated. Elevated oil means inflationary data increases and growth decelerates.

Reduced small cap exposure from 6-7% to 2% two weeks ago. Sold economically sensitive areas. Data opposite of what you want for small caps.