Near-term (next week or so) WTI target is $5-8 below Brent, which is seen at $80-90. The risk of oil price spike is extremely high due to potential Iranian missile attacks on regional energy infrastructure if the push for regime change continues.

Confirms the threat persists. The recent reduction in Iranian attacks doesn't eliminate risk. If US/Israel goals progress, Iran may see regime change as likely and respond asymmetrically, escalating the conflict.

Energy stocks benefited from broader market strength and a 'Goldilocks' economic outlook (dovish Fed, positive demand). Citi's 6-12 month bearish view is based on a baseline of de-escalation: 1) Conflict shifts from international (20-30M bbl at risk) to Iran-specific (2-3M bbl at risk), pulling prices lower in about a month. 2) Further decline if Ukraine peace deals occur towards end of summer.