Everything is changing. Lower inventories mean oil price should be at least $20 higher than previously expected for next 12 months. $80 is the new $60. Gas oversupply pushed back by a year. Refining damage could take 12 months to fix. Shows industry underinvestment; will see major revival of energy capex.

We will see as the key consequence a major revival of energy capex, like we have not seen since before the shale revolution.

Definitely. Oil services is exciting setup after 15 years of pain, consolidation. Major return of capex especially as US shale peaks and Hormuz becomes riskier. Need revival of exploration.

Some shortages possible in next couple months in some airports on jet fuel, some places on diesel, but small and local issues if Hormuz reopens. No systemic medium/long term shortages, but back end of oil price needs to go up to justify investment.

We need both. Renewables for security of supply, plus grid investment, nuclear. But also need gas for system stability and more cheap oil because oil demand will grow for next 20 years.

If one more month of Hormuz closure, oil back to $100/bbl. Every extra month adds $15-20 due to low inventories. Absolute peak in worst case could be $200/bbl (like 2007-08 adjusted) but don't think it's needed.