Introduces guest and asks how to dissect the extreme volatility in oil markets, noting the recent spike to $120 and pullback to $90.
Diane King Hall
Ben McMillan
Oil spike is an exogenous war event; major players want an off-ramp, which could happen in weeks. Robust pre-2026 supply and geopolitical risk premium will remain, but structural persistence is unlikely.
Notes G7 strategic reserves as a potential supply solution and asks for thoughts.
Diane King Hall
Ben McMillan
Agrees; everyone wants to solve this quickly. Practical constraints limit Iran's ability to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, making a prolonged disruption difficult.
Shifts to US economic health, linking high oil prices to inflation concerns and citing the weak jobs report.
Diane King Hall
Ben McMillan
The jobs report is key; a soft landing was priced in. A stagflation scenario is concerning if high oil persists alongside labor market stress from AI disruptions.
Asks if the recent recovery in the software sector (IGV) is short-lived after the 'SaaS-pocalypse'.
Diane King Hall
Ben McMillan
The sector-wide sell-off was overblown, but discrimination is needed. Microsoft benefits from AI (buying opportunity), while legacy software like Salesforce faces margin compression from AI tools.
Asks if Nvidia, despite its $4T+ cap, is still the clearest AI beneficiary.
Diane King Hall
Ben McMillan
Nvidia's outlook is extremely strong; consensus target is ~50% higher. Forward multiple isn't crazy due to surging data center revenue from big tech CapEx. AI adoption structural case is very strong.