I don't believe it is accurately priced in at all. This is a much more significant issue than a unilateral tariff scenario, with multiple players involved.

Market is not reacting as much as it did in initial stages of past conflicts.

Absolutely. Recent PMI data shows significant consumer weakness and reduction in spending. Affordability pressures will get worse.

The Fed will be focused on inflation. The jobs report looked positive, and the services PMI prices paid sub-index showed a very big jump.

Focus on inflation is bad news for the stock market.

Treasuries are a very good gauge. Yields have gone up this year, about 15 basis points, which is significant.

Yields have gone up far more for other countries facing similar issues like widening fiscal deficits, aggravated by high elevated oil prices.

The response would have to be fiscal, not monetary, to impact Main Street.

Cites pandemic fiscal response as fast and significant for Main Street vs. monetary response in GFC which helped Wall Street more.

Optimistic about backward-looking earnings, except for consumer cyclicals where retailers feel affordability pressure. Going forward, guidance will show diminished expectations as profit margins come down.