There's no doubt the market's topheavy. There's no doubt it's concentrated. We know this right. 10 companies comprise 25% of global equity market cap. And it's been narrow, right? So here we are November, you look back since the start of September. Equally S&P dead flat, semis are up 25 or 30 percent. I'd say two things about this. Number one is if all someone does is lament the fact that we have a topheavy market, you've missed an incredible opportunity set for the past 15 years.

We've heard about it for the better part of that period of time. And the second thing I would say is we talked about this last time I was on the show. If you go back to start of 2009, again NASDAQ's up 16 of 17 years. And you ask why did that happen? Only 10% of that is valuation. 90% was earnings growth or dividends. So quite literally the stocks at the top of the index have earned their place.

So I think any basic study of breadth and people throw this term around. It's not obvious to me it's some particularly high quality lead indicator. You can look at long periods of market history. You can remain concentrated for a long period of time. It happened in the 90s and happened in the 70s. And the history book doesn't tell you this portends a big sell-off. Sometimes it sets up a momentum reversal, some of the rotations we've seen, but it doesn't tell you the market has to tip over necessarily.

Well it is again through the prism of an equal weight index. It's obviously unequivocally bad news. I think the key is you just need to keep your eye on the ball which is US mega cap tech. Then I would take a step back and say okay if I want to be negative, if I want to take that as a signal to be negative the market I'm going to shoot against four big forces. I'm going to shoot against the Fed, violating rule number one. I'm going to shoot against an expected cyclical upturn in the economy in 2026. I'm going to shoot against all this capex which has just picked up more speed. And also shoot against the flow of funds which is retail and corporates buying the market every day. So it's really hard to pick tops. For my money, keep your eye on the ball and stick with the freight train that is US mega cap tech.

I think it was a concession to reality, very split committee operating without much data. Our view is it's still highly likely they cut in December. That makes 75 basis points for this year.

He was smart to buy himself five or six weeks of optionality because every day is its own ecosystem and anything can happen. We're at 3.875%. Neutral is about 3%. Everyone's worried about labor market. I don't know if it's Powell or the next person, presume the next person will be on margin more dovish. Our forecast there's a lot of roads point to getting to about 3%.

Some of it is symptomatic of positioning. The ferocious rallies from these stocks happened because systematic community was short, then retail invested heavily as in 2021. You need to be very careful. It's not a high quality signal but it flares up occasionally. Doesn't change the big picture I laid out.